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time to loss of skill vs population size
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Simon 2026-09-11 17:27:43 +01:00
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Chapter_8.Rmd
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@ -403,7 +403,7 @@ extinction_summary <- data.frame(
)
```
```{r skill-extinction-boxplot, fig.width=3.5, fig.height=7.5, fig.cap=paste("Time to extinction among runs with observed extinction, from", extinction_repeats, "runs per population size. ")}
```{r skill-extinction-boxplot, fig.width=5, fig.height=7.5, fig.cap=paste("Time to extinction among runs with observed extinction, from", extinction_repeats, "runs per population size. ")}
old_par <- par(mar = c(6, 4.5, 1, 1))
if (any(lengths(extinction_times) > 0)) {
@ -414,21 +414,13 @@ if (any(lengths(extinction_times) > 0)) {
border = line_cols,
outpch = 16,
outcex = 0.7,
ylim = range(0, unlist(extinction_times)),
ylim = c(10,5000),
range=0,
xlab = "",
xlab = "Population size",
ylab = "Generations until extinction",
lig="y",
log="y",
las = 1
)
mtext(
paste0(lengths(extinction_times), "/", extinction_repeats, " extinctions"),
side = 1,
at = seq_along(population_sizes),
line = 2.3,
cex = 0.9
)
mtext("Population size", side = 1, line = 4.3)
} else {
plot.new()
text(0.5, 0.5, "No extinctions were observed within the generation limit.")
@ -437,20 +429,3 @@ if (any(lengths(extinction_times) > 0)) {
par(old_par)
```
```{r skill-extinction-summary}
knitr::kable(
extinction_summary,
digits = 1,
caption = paste(
"Outcomes across", extinction_repeats,
"runs per population size. Median extinction times are in generations",
"and include only observed extinctions."
)
)
```
The spread of extinction times shows why one run is insufficient to characterise
the loss of highly skilled people. Larger populations can retain these skills
for longer, but outcomes still vary because copying is random. These boxplots
describe the timing of loss **conditional on extinction being observed**; the
table also shows how often extinction occurred among all the runs.